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Team USA vs Japan Odds & Predictions: Olympics Women's Basketball Picks July 29

Publish Date: 07/29/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe
Key Points
  • The United States is 4-1 vs Japan in their last 5 matchups
  • USA is favored by 21.5 points vs Japan
  • USA last defeated Japan 90-75 in 2021

The 2024 Paris Olympics are here, and the USA Basketball Women's National Team will begin the quest for their eighth straight gold medal. Led by head coach Cheryl Reeve, this USA roster is extremely talented and remains the heavy favorites to win another gold medal with -3500 odds.

With Japan as the underdog at +7500 odds, there are high expectations among the USA Women's National team. With the level of depth and talent, this matchup is highly awaited amongst fans and bettors.

(Photo by Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images)

For team USA, they had one sole exhibition game, in which they defeated Germany 84-57. With Napheesa Collier, Breanna Stewart, A'ja Wilson, Diana Taurasi, and Chelsea Gray composing the starting five, Wilson led the way with 19 points and 14 rebounds.

Having Stewart and Wilson lead the front court, it was Jewell Loyd who provided a spark off the bench with 11 points.

  • While Brittney Griner was listed as out, team USA managed to outrebound their opponent 33-26, and shot 42.3 percent from beyond the arc.

Following a 6-2 exhibition pre olympic record, Japan is led by Saki Hayashi and Evelyn Mawuli. They head into Olympic play with more exhibition games, although they've suffered consecutive losses to France and Begium. If you're betting on the Olympics, keep in mind, team USA is in mid season form.

If you're planning to bet on Women's Olympic basketball, I've compiled a list of odds and statistics to help make an informed betting decision.

  • Competing in group C, the United States defeated Japan 90-75 for the Championship gold medal back in August 2021.

With tip-off set to take place at 3 p.m. ET, the matchup will take place at Pierre Mauroy Stadium. Look no further than NBC for coverage.

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UNITES STATES VS JAPAN FANDUEL ODDS FOR JULY 29

MONEY LINE

  • UNITED STATES : -10000
  • JAPAN: +2500

SPREAD

  • UNITED STATES: -22.5 (-111)
  • JAPAN: +22.5 (-115)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

  • OVER: 160.5 (-113)
  • UNDER: 160.5 (-113)

TEAM USA EXHIBITION STATISTICS

*STATISTICS COURTESY OF USAB.COM
*INCLUDES WNBA ALL-STAR GAME

Statistic Value
Record 1-1
Points Per Game 96.5
Points Against Per Game 87.0
Rebounds Per Game 47.0
Assists Per Game 30.5
Steals Per Game 8.0
Field Goal % 46.1
Opponent Field Goal % 39.7
Last 5 Olympics Games (since 2021) 5-0

TEAM JAPAN EXHIBITION STATISTICS

*STATISTICS COURTESY OF USAB.COM

Statistic Value
Record 6-2
Points Per Game 81.1
Points Against Per Game 70.5
Last 5 Olympics Games (since 2021) 3-2

HEAD-TO-HEAD STATS: UNITED STATES VS JAPAN

Olympic Matchups:

  • 8/7/2021: USA 90, Japan 75

SPREAD: UNITED STATES -21.5

  • +104 (FANDUEL BOOST)

We all know that international basketball is extremely different than ball thats played strictly in the states. Different rules, level of physicality, all factors that will play a part in today's matchup. Once again, the United States will face Japan in a rematch of the 2021 Championship game.

  • Thanks to a colossal second half, USA captured yet another gold medal, defeating Japan 90-75.

Of the 12 players on the roster, seven of them were part of the Tokyo Olympics vs Japan--

  • A'ja Wilson
  • Breanna Stewart
  • Brittney Griner
  • Diana Taurasi
  • Napheesa Collier
  • Jewell Loyd
  • Chelsea Gray

Led by Brittney Griner with 30 points, all seven of those players combined for 79 points, specifically 63 from Griner, Wilson, and Stewart.

  • Only allowing one starter with points in double figures, Team USA turned on the jets defensively, limiting Japan to 36.4 percent from the floor, and 25.8 percent from deep.

Although three years has passed, there are limited statistics to base this matchup off of.

  • If you're betting on Olympic Women's Basketball, the USA money line is simply too juiced at -10000 for me to put a wager on that. Due to risk, I've opted for the spread.

Sure, 21.5 is a large spread margin, especially when it comes to international hoops. However, this United States team has several players in their prime, and they are coming off a 84-57 point victory over Germany.

  • If the spread margin was 27 for an exhibition game, perhaps they will turn on the jets even more today.

Overall, I'm putting my wager on the United States to cover the spread this afternoon.

Although they blew over a 20 point lead in 2021 against Japan, this will not be an easy task for USA. While Japan has +7500 to win a gold medal, they are competitive, and have several key players returning. Even with the return of Maki Takada, who cooked with 17 total points against USA in 2021, this USA roster is simply too talented.

THE UNITED STATES ARE FAVORED BY 21.5 POINTS VS JAPAN

Although it's unclear who Reeve will tab for her starting five, this roster is deep. For someone that intently covers and watches women's basketball, there's not one team who wishes to face Jewell Loyd, Kelsey Plum, Alyssa Thomas, Sabrina Ionescu, Kahleah Copper, Jackie Young, and Brittney Grinder off the bench.

  • Bottom line, I believe the spread is fair at 21.5, and the odds have a decent value.
  • Three of USA's top players were the leaders in last year's WNBA MVP race, and not to mention, Wilson is the mid season MVP.

I do worry about the United State's perimeter defense, as we saw team WNBA and Arike Ogunbowale crush 12 three pointers. However, we saw the dominance against Germany, who couldn't buy a shot at times. If USA has a tough attacking inside, they have plenty of snipers from downtown.

Although Japan has a larger sample size in exhibition games, USA is averaging over a 15 point margin difference in two games compared to Japan. Although Japan has shown glimpses of defenses, I trust USA's spacing and crisp ball movement.

  • Afterall, the United States scored 30 field goals on 27 assists.

A record 6th Olympic appearance, look for the United States to stay undefeated under Diana Taurasi. Avoiding the money line, I will lay the points with the USA, especially since it's the first matchup of the Olympics. As the Finals get closer, I expected tighter odds and spreads.

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