?(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

It's Saturday, and there's an enticing prime time showdown set to air on ABC, pitting two formidable teams from the Eastern and Western Conferences against each other. The Phoenix Suns (37-26, 21-13), aiming for their third consecutive win, will host the Boston Celtics (48-14, 19-11 away).

The Suns, currently sitting at sixth place in the Western Conference standings, have posted a 6-4 record in their last ten games but have been missing their star player, Devin Booker, since the beginning of the month.

The Suns will have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd at the Footprint Center, where they boast the 12th best home record in the NBA.

Since the All-Star break, they've secured a home record of 3-2, claiming victories against formidable opponents such as the Lakers, Rockets, and Raptors. This game against the Celtics marks the final matchup of their brief home stretch before they hit the road for a challenging four-game road trip starting Monday.

This is the first matchup between the Celtics and Suns of the 2023-2024 season

This game marks the first meeting of the season between these two teams. The Celtics, despite holding the best record in the NBA, are coming off consecutive losses against the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Denver Nuggets.

This matchup falls in the midst of Boston's five-game road trip. Notably, the Celtics have several key players listed on the injury report, including Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. These two teams will meet for a second and final time on Mar. 14.

In anticipation of this highly awaited clash between two powerhouse teams, I've analyzed all available statistics, analytics, and odds to provide my top player prop predictions for tonight's game.

Certainly, here are my preferred NBA prop bets for Saturday, Mar. 9, all taken as straight bets.? Given my focus on bankroll management, I refrained from placing multiple units on any of these individual bets.

Odds are current as of Mar. 8 at 10 p.m. ET.

Sara Jane's NBA betting record for the month of March: 27-20

SARA JANE'S PLAYER PROP BET #1: JRUE HOLIDAY

JRUE HOLIDAY SEASON STATS

One of my top NBA prop bets for tonight is expecting Celtics guard Jrue Holiday to surpass 11.5 points against the Phoenix Suns. He typically scores 12.8 points per game this season, so seeing the line set lower feels a bit disrespectful given his consistent contributions.

Despite the talent on the Boston roster, Holiday has been a reliable presence on both offense and defense.

During the recent Celtics road trip, Holiday scored 12 points in each of the games against the Denver Nuggets and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Although he missed some late three-point opportunities in the last game, I'm still confident in this prop bet.

Throughout the road trip, he has averaged 35.5 minutes and 12 points, with a shooting percentage of 33.3% from three-point range and 52.8% from the field. With 19 shots attempted in the last two games, I believe he has a good chance to perform well in Phoenix tonight.

This marks the first meeting between the Celtics and Suns this season. Additionally, it will be the first time Holiday faces Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant as teammates, and potentially Devin Booker if he's available to play.

JRUE HOLIDAY DRAFT KINGS ODDS

• Over 11.5 points (-110)

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I ANTICIPATE ODDS AND LINE MOVEMENT TO INCREASE

While I secured the line early, I anticipate the odds to fluctuate, particularly if Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are unable to play tonight. Regardless, I expect the prop line to increase to 12.5 points or higher.

Holiday has surpassed 11.5 points in four of the last six games, including matchups against the Denver Nuggets, Cleveland Cavaliers, Philadelphia 76ers, and New York Knicks. With the playoffs approaching, the Celtics will face the Phoenix Suns one more time in the regular season this Thursday.

As the season progresses, these matchups are beginning to feel more like playoff games. In the past two games, we've observed increased coverage on Jayson Tatum, leading to more opportunities for Holiday and other players. Known as one of the best post-up guards in the league, I'm eager to see him match up against Bradley Beal and potentially Devin Booker.

Holiday boasts a 63 percent hit rate on this prop bet this season, performing even better on the road. In his last three road games, he has scored over 11.5 points, and in 8 of the last 9 away games from Boston.

Few players excel to such an extent on the road, making this prop even more appealing. Over his last eight road games, Holiday is averaging 14.4 points against formidable opponents such as Toronto, Dallas, Miami (twice), Brooklyn, New York, Cleveland, and Denver. Notably, most of these teams have winning records.

Holiday has been stellar from the three-point line this season

Holiday has been exceptionally accurate from beyond the arc this season, boasting a career-high 44.4 percent three-point shooting rate in his inaugural season with Boston. Despite a decrease in overall shot attempts, his improved efficiency is why the current prop line offers favorable odds at -110.

Impressively, Holiday leads the NBA with a staggering 64.6 percent conversion rate on corner three-pointers, showcasing remarkable consistency from both the left and right sides. His propensity to find open spots on the perimeter, particularly in the corners, makes him a valuable asset in the Celtics' offense, especially if they prioritize ball movement over isolation plays.

While the Phoenix Suns haven't historically been the toughest defensive team, they currently rank 12th in defensive rating at 114.1. Tonight, Holiday will square off against a Phoenix squad that ranks 15th in defending guards, anchored by the likes of Bradley Beal and, if available, Devin Booker.

As of this morning, Booker is listed as a game-time decision, with Grayson Allen slated to start at shooting guard alongside Royce O'Neale at small forward.

As a versatile two-way guard, Holiday can exploit Phoenix's defensive weaknesses, as they allow the 27th most points off turnovers (18.4) and the 18th most fast-break points (14.5). Additionally, their vulnerability in the paint, conceding over 50 points per game, presents an opportunity for Holiday to attack both inside and outside.

Overall, Phoenix permits the 16th most points per game (114.3) and opponents shoot nearly 36.4 percent from beyond the arc. Given Holiday's tenacious perimeter defense, there's potential for him to capitalize on turnovers and convert them into scoring opportunities. Notably, Phoenix ranks 26th in steals allowed per game, surrendering 8.2 steals on avera

11.5 points is great value at -110

The last time Jrue Holiday faced the Phoenix Suns was in mid-March 2023 when he was a member of the Milwaukee Bucks. He scored 12 points in his last outing against them, and tonight he'll have another opportunity to face them.

Furthermore, I'm particularly fond of Holiday's consistent playing time and shot volume, especially considering he's averaging 31 minutes per game in four matchups this month. With an average of 4.5 three-point attempts per game in his last four outings, Holiday has been efficient with 8 field goal attempts per game, shooting at an impressive 53.1 percent from the field.

Tonight, Holiday presents a compelling case against the Suns, who have a tendency to surrender a significant number of three-pointers to opposing point guards. Coming off a day of rest, Holiday has hit this prop 76 percent of the time and has succeeded in five of the last six games following a day off.

Over the past month, the Phoenix Suns have allowed guards such as Immanuel Quickley, Jamal Murray, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Fred VanVleet to surpass their respective points props. This trend bodes well for Holiday's chances tonight.

SARA JANE'S PLAYER PROP BET #2 GRAYSON ALLEN

GRAYSON ALLEN SEASON STATS

The line for Grayson Allen tonight is indeed a bit steep at -174, but given his recent performances, it's a tempting bet. He's been on fire lately, putting up impressive point totals of 26 and 28 against tough opponents like the Toronto Raptors and the Denver Nuggets.

Furthermore, his success from beyond the arc has been particularly impressive, with 16 made three-pointers on just 24 attempts over the last two games.

However, despite Allen's recent hot streak, I remain cautious about taking the over on his prop total for three-pointers tonight. His inconsistency is a concern, especially when facing a strong defensive team like the Boston Celtics. Additionally, the potential return of Devin Booker to the Suns' starting lineup could impact Allen's opportunities and shooting volume.

Looking at Allen's prop hit rate for games where he plays at least 35.5 minutes, it stands at a low 30 percent for the season. Even with increased playing time recently—he's averaged 33.9 minutes per game last month and 37.8 minutes per game so far in March—his success rate hasn't improved significantly.

Given these factors, caution is warranted when considering betting on Allen's three-pointers made tonight.

GRAYSON ALLEN FANDUEL ODDS

• Under 3.5 PTM? (-174)

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THE CELTICS DEFENSE IS REAL

Grayson Allen's recent performances have indeed been noteworthy. However, he faces a tough challenge tonight against the Celtics' formidable defense, which ranks second in defensive rating (110.3) and boasts the second-best perimeter defense in the NBA.

Boston also holds the second position in opponent three-point percentage at 34.7 and allows an average of just 109.9 points per game, placing them in the top five defensively.

Tonight, Allen will be matched up against Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, forming a formidable backcourt for the Celtics. With White's shot-blocking abilities, it seems unlikely that Allen will surpass the mark of 3.5 made three-pointers.

Celtics' head coach Joe Mazzulla has instilled a defensive-minded culture in Boston, particularly excelling in switching on screens and employing drop-back coverage strategies.

Looking back to the end of February, only two shooting guards, Donte DiVincenzo of the New York Knicks and Colby White of the Chicago Bulls, managed to hit four three-pointers against the Celtics. However, in the subsequent games, the last five shooting guards facing the Celtics failed to exceed two made three-pointers.

Allens overall numbers don't justify betting on the over

In general, Allen has found his rhythm, now playing for his fourth team in six seasons. Nonetheless, the under has been successful 60 percent of the time in the last ten games and 73 percent in the last 15 games. A highly skilled shooter, Allen has only exceeded the over in 21 out of 57 games played this season.

Despite setting a Suns record with seven made three-pointers in the first quarter on Mar. 7, the Celtics are expected to be formidable defensively, especially after losing two consecutive road games.

While Allen occasionally drives to the basket, he may encounter difficulties against the Celtics, who rank 9th in opponent points in the paint, allowing just 47.6 per game. In their recent encounter, Boston limited Denver to 4-21 (19 percent) three-point shooting.

Despite past achievements, Allen has failed to surpass two made three-pointers in his last three matchups against the Celtics. Given his 30 percent success rate in averaging 3.7 field goals made per game, it remains doubtful that he will exceed this mark.

Lastly, the Celtics boast the 4th best defense against guards, and even when playing at home, Allen has only surpassed the over in three out of the last ten games at Footprint Center.

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