Key Points
- NBA Final rematch: The Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets will face each other for the first time since the Nuggets won the NBA title
- Both teams are on winning streaks. Sara Jane assesses the spread and gives her top game prediction.
- Sara Jane dives into the total and provides her top analysis and prediction.
Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
It's Thursday, and we've got an exciting late-night matchup tonight. Get ready for a rematch of the intense 2023 NBA Finals between the Miami Heat (33-25, 18-12 away) and the reigning champions, the Denver Nuggets (39-19, 22-5 home).
In their first matchup of the regular season, the Miami Heat are aiming for redemption following a 4-1 finals series defeat against Denver. Despite their unsuccessful pursuit of Bucks star Damian Lillard during the offseason, Miami bolstered their roster through astute draft selections, notably picking up rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. from UCLA.
Additionally, the acquisition of seasoned guard Terry Rozier has provided the Heat with valuable assets to complement the talents of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
As the Nuggets prepare to host the Heat tonight on their home court, they do so with an impressive record of only five losses at home this season and a roster free of major injuries.
Conversely, the Heat have faced injury challenges throughout the season, with six players currently listed on the injury report.
If you're looking to bet on the Heat and Nuggets matchup, I've compiled data and conducted my analysis, making the best informed decision-making. The bests odds available at the moment are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Odds are current as of Feb. 29, at 9 a.m.
ET.
SJ's NBA record for the month of February: 48-38, +13 units
MIAMI HEAT VS. DENVER NUGGETS FANDUEL ODDS FOR FEB 29
MONEY LINE
- MIAMI HEAT: +152
- DENVER NUGGETS: -180
SPREAD
- MIAMI HEAT: +4.5 (-110)
- DENVER NUGGETS: -4.5 (-110)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 214 (-110)
- UNDER: 214 (-110)
Best Odds For Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets
- FanDuel currently has the best Nuggets money line odds at -240
- The Denver Nuggets are -4.5 favorites against the Miami Heat. FanDuel currently has the best odds currently at -110
- The Miami Heat are the underdogs by 45.5 to cover the spread tonight. Again, FanDuel has the best odds at -110 for Miami to cover the spread
- FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the best odds for the total, which is set at -110 (214)
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Miami Heat & Denver Nuggets INJURY REPORT
MIAMI HEAT Injury Report
- SG, JOSH RICHARDSON: Out (shoulder)
- C, ORLANDO ROBINSON: Out (back)
- G, DRU SMITH, Out (knee)
- PF, KEVIN LOVE: Out (knee)
- PG, TYLER HERRO: Day-to-day (knee)
DENVER NUGGETS Injury Report
- SF, VLATKO CANCAR, Out (Knee surgery)
Miami Heats SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS
*ATS = Against the Spread
*O/U = Over/Under
| Category |
Record/Stat |
| Last 5 Games Record |
Miami Heat: 5-0 |
| Last 10 Games Record |
8-2 |
| ATS Record |
29-28-1 |
| O/U Record |
22-36-0 |
| Last 5 Games ATS |
5-0 |
| Last 10 Games ATS |
9-1 |
| Last 5 Games O/U |
1-4 |
| Last 10 Games O/U |
2-8 |
| Offensive Rating |
No. 20 (113.4) |
| Defensive Rating |
No. 7 (112.6) |
| Points Per Game |
No. 27 (110.6) |
| Pace |
No. 28 (97.39) |
| Opponent Points Per Game |
109.9 (Rank: 3) |
| Three-Point Percentage |
37.5% (Rank: 11) |
| Rebounds Per Game |
42.1 (Rank: 23) |
| Last 10 ATS Wins |
Wizards (-7.5), Magic (-3), Spurs (-8), Celtics (+8), Bucks (+7.5), 76ers (+2.5), Pelicans (+2), Kings (+7.5), Trail Blazers (-7) |
Denver Nuggets SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS
*ATS = Against the Spread
*O/U = Over/Under
| Category |
Record/Stat |
| Last 5 Games |
3-2 |
| Last 10 Games |
6-4 |
| ATS Record |
25-32-1 |
| O/U Record |
21-36-1 |
| Last 5 ATS |
3-2 |
| Last 10 ATS |
5-5 |
| Last 5 O/U |
2-3 |
| Last 10 O/U |
4-6 |
| Offensive Rating |
No. 10 (117.5) |
| Defensive Rating |
No. 9 (113.4) |
| Points Per Game |
No. 16 (114.5) |
| Pace |
No. 27 (97.55) |
| Opponent Points Per Game |
110.7 (7) |
| Three-Point Percentage |
36.6% (15) |
| Rebounds Per Game |
44.4 (10) |
| Last 10 ATS Wins |
Oklahoma City Thunder (+6), LA Lakers (-3), Washington Wizards (-15.5), Portland Trail Blazers (-8), Golden State Warriors (+1.5) |
SPREAD: MIAMI HEAT (+4.5 FANDUEL)
Last season, we observed one of the most lopsided NBA finals in recent history. The Heat, aiming for redemption, have demonstrated resilience in the Eastern Conference standings despite encountering injuries. Currently positioned fifth in the east, the Heat are on a hot streak, triumphing in five consecutive games against the Trail Blazers, Kings, Pelicans, 76ers, and Bucks.
Although Miami is often viewed as the underdogs, they have an impressive track record, boasting a 9-1 record against the spread in their last ten games, covering in nine consecutive matchups.
What's particularly remarkable is Miami's performance against the spread, with a record of 29-28-1 overall and an impressive 17-12-1 record ATS on the road. Despite trailing the Boston Celtics by 13 games for the No.1 seed, Miami is currently exhibiting some of their finest basketball.
During their five-game winning streak, Miami has been shooting at an outstanding rate, boasting a 50% accuracy from the floor and an impressive 42.5% from beyond the arc.
Moreover, Miami's defensive prowess is evident, ranking second only to the Celtics in defensive rating over this streak (103.9).
With a ninth-place ranking in overall defense, the Heat have been holding their opponents to just 100 points scored over the span of five games. Particularly noteworthy is their ability to limit Milwaukee, New Orleans, and Portland, all of whom were held under the 100-point mark.
MIAMI IS LIMITING TOP-SEEDED TEAMS TO FEWER POINTS
When I look at Miami's win streak, I look at the strength of schedule and opponents played. Similar to last season, they don't score a ton of points. However, they scored four consecutive victories over the Bucks, 76ers, Pelicans, and Kings, who are all well over .500 teams.
Milwaukee, who's a top offensive team in the NBA, was held to just 97 points against Miami on Feb. 13.
One of the primary reasons I'm inclined to favor Miami to cover the spread is the fact that Denver will be on the second leg of a back-to-back. Miami's recent victory over Portland on Tuesday provided them with an extra day of rest, contrasting with the Nuggets who are coming off a 117-96 home victory against the Kings.
Now riding a four-game win streak, the Nuggets will conclude their mini home stand against Miami. In matchups with zero days rest in between, Denver is 7-4, averaging 112 points on 36.3 % three-point shooting. On one days rest, Miami is 18-18, putting up 111 points, on 38.1 % three-point shooting.
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The HEAT HAVE COVERED THE SPREAD IN 8 OF THE LAST 10 MEETINGS AGAINST THE NUGGETS
Overall, the Nuggets hold a record of 13-14-0 against the spread at home this season, indicating that this game should be closely contested between the two teams. In terms of player availability, Miami faces uncertainty with both Tyler Herro listed as questionable, as he would play a crucial role in the matchup.
However, Terry Rozier, who narrowly avoided a significant injury, has returned to the lineup, joining Jimmy Butler on the court for Miami.
Despite the Nuggets boasting a 9-1 record against Miami in their last ten matchups, they have struggled against the spread, holding a 2-8 record in those games. Notably, dating back to the NBA Finals last June, the Heat covered the spread in the last matchup by eight points. Interestingly, while Miami may not score as prolifically as Denver, both teams rank within the top 10 defensively in the NBA.
Averaging 113 point over the last five games, I'm confident the Heat can keep up, especially with depth behind the starting five. The original line was +5.5, so look out for line movement.
TOTAL: UNDER 214 (-110 FANDUEL)
If you're betting on the over/under (total) for this matchup, the line is moving. With the line originally set at 216.5, I was able to grab it at 214 as of Thursday morning. Let's take a look at the total, where i'll give my best prediction and analysis.
Regarding the total score, both teams have consistently favored the under over the over. Denver holds a total record of 22-36-0, indicating 22 games hitting the over and 36 hitting the under. Similarly, the Heat have a total record of 21-36-1.
Although this data stems from the 2023 NBA finals, it's notable that the Heat and Nuggets combined for three consecutive unders, culminating in a game-high of 204 points on June 9, 2023.
Miami has showcased stellar defensive prowess in their last 10 games, resulting in a 2-8 record against totals. Over this span, the Heat have conceded just 101.6 points per game, with the highest being 110 points scored by Boston.
For Miami, the under is 22-6 in the last 28 games.
The Nuggets hold a 4-6 record against totals in their last ten games, and they've managed to limit opponents to 108 points in their most recent three games. In addition, the total has gone under in 13 of the past 17 matchups for the Nuggets. With Miami retaining much of their core from last season, Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra should feel fairly familiar, despite some alterations to the bench.
Overall, both teams are among the slowest paced in the NBA and rank in the top ten defensively. This highly anticipated rematch promises to be a fierce battle on the grandest stage, and I anticipate it will be a closely contested match until the very end.
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