Key Points
- The Celtics lead the season series 1-0, and will wrap up their regular season matchup against the Suns tonight.
- Boston has the best home record in the NBA at 29-3.
- Both sides have key players listed on the injury report.
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?(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
It's Thursday, and there's a highly anticipated primetime matchup between two of top teams amongst the eastern and western conferences.
Set to air on TNT, the Boston Celtics (51-14, 29-3) will host the Phoenix Suns (38-27,17-13 away) for the second and final matchup of the season. Although there were a few key injuries the last matchup, bettors await the matchup of the night.
It seem's as though the Celtics and Suns matched up yesterday, as Boson defeated Phoenix 117-107 on Mar. 9. Less than a week later, Phoenix will seek redemption and aim to even up the regular season series.
The first team to surpass 50 wins this year, the Celtics have an extraordinary 29-3 home record at the TDGarden, only suffering home losses to the Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers, and Los Angeles Lakers. Before the Nuggets put an end to the Celtics exceptional run, Boston started 20-0 at home, and extended their home winning streak to 27 games dating back to the 2023 season.
Boston dominated their road stretch
With the best record in the NBA, head coach Joe Mazzulla and the C's are coming off three consecutive victories over the Suns, Trail Blazers, and Jazz. Coming off a long five game win streak, primarily taken place on the west coast, Boston will host the next three of four matchups, before heading to Detroit that kicks off a six game road stretch.
8-2 in their last ten games, the green and white remain 9.5 games ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Milwaukee Bucks for the no.1 seed in the east.
For the Suns, they are coming off a much needed 117-111 victory over Cleveland on Monday night. While guard Devin Booker remained sidelined with an ankle injury for their first matchup against Boston, he's not included on the injury report for this evening. 5-5 in their last ten matchups, Phoenix currently holds the no.6 seed, 7.5 games behind Denver for the top seed.
Although a more efficient team at home, the Suns have won three of their last four outings, and will kick off a three game mini road trip starting in Boston. With their big three healthy, Phoenix has the ability to make a late push for a higher seed in the west.
In anticipation of this highly awaited clash between two powerhouse teams, I've analyzed all available statistics, analytics, and odds to provide my best predictions for tonights meeting. In addition, I've compiled all the necessary data, odds, and statistics to facilitate informed betting predictions for Thursday Mar. 14.
ODDS ARE CURRENT AS OF MAR. 14, AT 12:00 A.M. ET (UPDATED)
- SJ's NBA record this month: 38-32
PHOENIX SUNS VS. BOSTON CELTICS FANDUEL ODDS FOR MAR. 14
MONEY LINE
- PHOENIX SUNS: +176
- BOSTON CELTICS:-220
SPREAD
- PHOENIX SUNS: +5.5 (-114)
- BOSTON CELTICS: -5.5 (-108)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 228.5 (-112)
- UNDER: 228.5 (-108)
BEST FANDUEL ODDS FOR PHOENIX SUNS VS. BOSTON CELTICS
- FanDuel currently has the best Celtics money line odds at -210
- The Boston Celtics are 5.5 point favorites against the Phoenix Suns. FanDuel currently has the best odds currently at -108
- The Phoenix Suns are the underdogs by 5.5 points, to cover the spread this evening. Again, FanDuel currently has the best odds at -114 to cover
- FanDuel Sportsbook has the best odds for the game total, which is set at -112 for the over, and -108 for the under (228.5)
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PHOENIX SUNS AND BOSTON CELTICS INJURY REPORT
PHOENIX SUNS INJURY REPORT
- SG: Eric Gordon, day-to-day (knee)
- SG: Damion Lee, OUT (knee)
- SF:? Nassir Little, OUT (knee)
- SF: Josh Okogie, OUT (abdomen)
BOSTON CELTICS INJURY REPORT
- SG: Jaylen Brown, day-to-day (back)
- SG, Jordan Walsh, day-to-day (recalled from the G-League)
- C: Kristaps Porzingis, OUT (hamstring)
PHOENIX SUNS SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS
*ATS = Against the Spread
*O/U = Over/Under
| Category |
Statistics |
| Last 5 Games |
3-2 |
| Last 10 Games |
5-5 |
| ATS Record |
25-38-2 |
| O/U Record |
28-37-0 |
| Last 5 Games ATS |
1-4 |
| Last 10 Games ATS |
2-8 |
| Last 5 Games O/U |
1-4 |
| Last 10 Games O/U |
1-9 |
| Offensive Rating (Rank) |
117 (9th) |
| Defensive Rating (Rank) |
114.2 (13th) |
| Points Per Game (Rank) |
117 (11th) |
| Pace (Rank) |
99.37 (15th) |
| Opponent Points Per Game (Rank) |
114.3 (16th) |
| Three-Point Percentage (Rank) |
37.6% (7th) |
| Rebounds Per Game (Rank) |
44 (12th) |
| Last 10 Games ATS Wins |
Los Angeles Lakers (-3.5), Denver Nuggets (+8.5) |
BOSTON CELTICS SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS
*ATS = Against the Spread
*O/U = Over/Under
| Category |
Statistics |
| Last 5 Games |
3-2 |
| Last 10 Games |
8-2 |
| ATS Record |
33-29-3 |
| O/U Record |
29-34-1 |
| Last 5 Games ATS |
3-2 |
| Last 10 Games ATS |
8-2 |
| Last 5 Games O/U |
1-3-1 |
| Last 10 Games O/U |
3-6-1 |
| Offensive Rating (Rank) |
121.7 (1st) |
| Defensive Rating (Rank) |
110.4 (2nd) |
| Points Per Game (Rank) |
120.8 (2nd) |
| Pace (Rank) |
99.50 (19th) |
| Opponent Points Per Game (Rank) |
109.6 (4th) |
| Three-Point Percentage (Rank) |
38.5% (3rd) |
| Rebounds Per Game (Rank) |
47.1 (1st) |
| Last 10 Games ATS Wins |
Chicago Bulls (-8.5), New York Knicks (-6), Philadelphia 76ers (-11.5), Dallas Mavericks (-8.5), Golden State Warriors (-8), Phoenix Suns (-5.5), Portland Trail Blazers (-11.5), Utah Jazz (-6.5) |
HEAD-TO-HEAD STATS: SUNS VS. CELTICS
Season Matchups:
- Game 1: Celtics 117, Phoenix 107 ( BOS -5.5, under 225.5)
Tonight, I'm inclined to take the Boston Celtics money line for -210 odds on FanDuel. While the odds are slightly elevated, I do believe there is some value in taking the line. For the Celtics, they will once again be without starting center, Kristaps Porzingis. In addition, wingman Jaylen Brown is listed as questionable with a back injury. This game is extremely important for both sides, but I do believe it expresses eager importance on Boston's side.
With 17 games remaining in the regular season, this is the time where the Celtics and Joe Mazzulla will experience with various lineups, especially within the second unit. With so few matchups remaining, the Celtics will only face seven teams which are above .500, and that includes Phoenix. While every matchup counts, it's vital for the Celtics to continue to develop their on court chemistry, rotations, and game plan, especially against respectable teams.
- SPREAD: CELTICS -5.5 (-108 FANDUEL)
- MONEY LINE: CELTICS (-220 FANDUEL)
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Boston covered the 5.5 point spread in their first matchup vs. Phoenix
Their first matchup, which took place on Mar. 9, the Celtics took care of business, and defeated the Suns 117-107 on their home court. Additionally, favored by a 5.5 point spread, the Celtics covered, and ended up capturing the victory by a 10 point margin. While it's a small sample size, the Suns were without star Devin Booker, who is expected to suit up tonight.
Six year guard Grayson Allen started in his place, struggling mightily from the field, putting up just eight points on 3-8 field goal shooting.? It's crucial that Jaylen Brown suits up tonight for Boston, since he was a two-way threat.
In their first matchup, Brown poured in 27 points, on 4-7 shots beyond the arc. Stellar on the defensive end, the Celtics swingman finished the night with two steals.
In that first meeting, both the Celtics and Suns shot poorly from the free-throw line. While Boston shot 38.5 percent from deep, they held Phoenix to just under 30 percent from the three-point line. For Boston, the bench showed its importance, as Luke Kornet, Payton Prichard, and Sam Hauser combined for 27 points.
My only concern heading into this matchup, is how will Boston handle the 'big 3', which consists of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker, and is there a way to stop Durant? Given Boston is known for their defensive prowess, Durant finished with 45 points on 18-26 shots from the floor.
Betting on Celtics -5.5 has great value at -108.
Able to grab the lines early, I expect the odds and lines to shift, especially as injuries are solidified closer to game time. At -108, I love Boston to cover this point spread, and for various reasons. First, the C's are 33-29-3 against the spread, which is respectable. Second, 8-2 against covering the spread over the last ten games is nothing to sniff at.
Over a grueling five game road trip, Boston covered against Utah, Portland, and Phoenix. Since Feb. 22, they were able to cover against Golden State, Dallas, Philadelphia, New York, and Chicago.
Another reason why I love the Celtics to cover is their ability to do so at home. With a 18-14 home record against the spread, they meet the Suns, who are 13-16-1 covering the point spread on the road.
When fully healthy, Boston is the more dominant team, especially at home. They managed to put up 117 points, and solidify a ten point cushion, and that was without Porzingis. One aspect of the Celtics is that they manage to pull off victories, and cover with injuries or not.
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I took Celtics money line at -220
It's worthy to note Boston is 6-0 without Jaylen Brown this season, against Philadelphia, Detroit, Toronto, Memphis, Brooklyn, and Utah. Having missed last game against Utah, there's a high probability Brown will lace up tonight.
For the Suns, they haven't been able to cover in the last three matchups against Cleveland, Boston, and Toronto. 2-8 in the last ten, and 1-6 in their last seven games, the Suns are averaging nearly the same amount of points as Boston over the last five games, however, the caliber of defense is what sets these two teams apart.
The Celtics are playing elite basketball
Winners of four straight, and they've proven they are the most elite team in the league, both in the offensive and defensive side of the ball. While Boston claimed victory over Phoenix just last week, the Suns couldn't get it done, despite Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkic compiling double-doubles of their own.
Even with Beal putting up 25 points, I can't see them covering the spread, nor beating the Celtics on their home floor. While Brown and Porzingis combine for nearly 44 points per game, the Celtics bench have proven their value all season long, especially with Kornet, Hauser, and Pritchard.
While there are key injuries for the Celtics, theres a simple reason why they will win this game outright, and that's due to the defensive culture coach Mazzulla has instilled since his time in Boston. Second in defensive rating (110.4), Boston only allows opponents to score 109.6 points per game, and rank second in opponent three-point percentage (34.8 %), and field goal percentage (44.9 %).
Celtics declared victory in 14 of 16 games
One of the most formidable teams on the perimeter, Boston held Royce O'Neal and Grayson Allen to a combined 1-10 from deep. Furthermore, they held Phoenix to just 107 points per game in the first meeting.? Over the last 10 games, Boston is holding opponents to just 106.6 points per game.
While the Celtics ran into trouble covering Durant and the midrange, I'm confident they will take this one at home, and will complete the season sweep. With Al Horford likely to start in the absence of Porzingis, they have proven they are nearly untouchable at home.
Winning the last 14 of 16 games, Celtics Jayson Tatum is coming off a monster game, 38 points and six rebounds against Utah. The hottest team in the league, guard Derrick White had another stellar two-way performance, finishing with 24 points, 3 blocks, and one steal, on 7-11 shots from deep.
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