The New York Liberty guns for its fourth straight win while the Connecticut Sun looks to exact revenge as both teams collide this Tuesday, July 16, 2024, in the packed Barclays Center at Brooklyn, New York.

(Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

New York Liberty vs Connecticut Sun Predictions: WNBA Team Analysis

New York is coming off an 81-67 demolition of the Chicago Sky on Saturday to grab its 20th win of the season.

• Crafty guard Sabrina Ionescu paced the Liberty with 28 points while forwards Jonquel Jones and Leonie Fiebich added 14 and 13 markers respectively.

Up next for them is the revenge-seeking Connecticut team which is coming off its biggest win of the season against the Phoenix Mercury.

The Sun beat the Mercury 96-69 to record its fourth win in five games. They will be taking on a Liberty squad that has beaten them twice this season.

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In their most recent clash, the Liberty which came as 1.5 point favorites overcame the odds and eked out a 71-68 road win against the Sun. Will New York complete the sweep of the season series or will Connecticut finally solve the puzzle that is the Liberty?

Here’s how the New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun betting lines stand.

New York Liberty vs Connecticut Sun Bet365 WNBA Odds for July 16

Moneyline

• New York Liberty: -245
• Connecticut Sun: +200

Spread

• New York Liberty: -5.5 (-110)
• Connecticut Sun: +5.5 (-110)

Over/Under (Total)

• OVER 153.5 (-110)
• UNDER 153.5 (-110)

New York Liberty vs Connecticut Sun Injury Report

New York Liberty Injury Report

1. Breanna Stewart – Day-to-Day
2. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton – Day-to-Day

Connecticut Sun Injury Report

1. Moriah Jefferson – Out

Best odds for New York Liberty vs Connecticut Sun

• The New York Liberty and the Connecticut Sun rank second and eighth respectively in points per game. However, they have settled for the under in their past two meetings. The best New York Liberty vs Connecticut Sun odds for the under is on Bet365 at -110.
• The Connecticut Sun sports a respectable 5-5 Against-The-Spread (ATS) record on the road. FanDuel currently offers the best price for the Sun to cover a +6.5 spread at -112.
• The New York Liberty is currently riding a three-game ATS win streak. FanDuel has the Liberty to cover the -5.5 spread at -108.

Why will the New York Liberty cover the spread?

The New York Liberty heads into this match winning eight of their past 10 games, including a 71-68 victory against the Connecticut Sun last week.

1. So, it’s no surprise they are opening as 5.5 point favorites against the Sun and even as wide as +6.5 across multiple bookies.
2. In their previous matchup, the Liberty came in as 1.5 favorites and they more than covered the spread with a three-point victory against the Sun.

Coming into this game, the Liberty has beaten the Sun in their past six encounters.

1. In their victories against Connecticut, New York has won by an average margin of 4.6 points.
2. What’s even more impressive is five of their last six victories against the Sun were on the road.

Now they return home after a short trip to Chicago to take on the Sun who has been terrible at covering the spread as an underdog all season.

• The Sun is 1-4 ATS when bookies have them as underdogs.

If that’s not bad enough, they will be taking on a New York team who hasn’t lost a home game since May. In their past nine home games this season, the Liberty has beaten teams by an average of 12 points.

In addition, the Connecticut Sun is among the worst defensive teams in the league, ranking ninth in defensive rebounds and dead last in blocks.

• With the Liberty being the second-best offensive team in the league, backing them to cover the -5.5 spread at home and continue their mastery of the Sun looks appealing at -110.

It is also worth noting that the Liberty has covered the spread in their past two matchups this season.

Why will the Connecticut Sun cover the spread?

The Connecticut Sun has been more than impressive this season. They have won four of its last five games and are seemingly invincible against most teams except for the New York Liberty.

In fact, New York has been a thorn on Connecticut’s winning streaks this year.

1. Connecticut started the season on a nine-game winning streak before losing 82-75 to the Liberty in June.
2. The Sun once again recorded three straight wins to start July before dropping one to the Liberty last week.

With the Liberty being the Sun’s kryptonite this season, it’s no wonder that bookmakers are heavily favoring the former against the latter in the latest New York Liberty vs Connecticut Sun lines.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom for the Sun against the Liberty heading into this match. As a matter of fact, they are in the best position to score their first victory of the season against New York.

Not only that Connecticut is coming off its biggest win this season but the Liberty will likely be playing without one of its top guns in Breanna Stewart in this match. The 29-year old Stewart was ruled out against Chicago over the weekend and is questionable against the Connecticut Sun.

It can be recalled that Stewart is among the players that have been giving Connecticut problems down low. In their last meeting,

• Stewart notched 18 points and 14 rebounds to lead the Liberty to the win.

Even if Stewart does play – which is a big if – she will likely not be in her best shape. All things considered, playing the Sun to cover the +5.5 spread at -110 does make sense with New York missing one of its key cogs.

Final New York Liberty vs Connecticut Sun Prediction: Connecticut Sun +5.5 (-110)

With Breanna Stewart’s injury status still up in the air, I am extremely tempted in picking the Connecticut Sun to win outright. Albeit an injury to Moriah Jefferson, the Sun heads into this matchup as the much healthier team.

• Plus, as mentioned above, they are fresh off their biggest win of the season.

One thing that is holding me back, though, is New York is the better team on paper. They have more depth and are playing in front of their home fans.

• The Liberty is 11-1 (win-loss) when playing at home this season, which makes the Sun at moneyline a riskier play.

Nevertheless, I am taking a flier on the much healthier Connecticut Sun squad to cover the spread on the road against the New York Liberty at -110.