Best NRFI Bets Today

As we hit hump day during a big week in the big leagues, we'll take a look at NRFI -- No Runs in the First Inning -- to bring us another fruitful night on the diamond.

(Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)

We'll examine an interesting pitching matchup in Baltimore before heading back to this Nationals-Marlins series for another NRFI. Then, we'll discuss why the two arms on the hill in New York tonight have a good shot at making it through a clean first.

Let's check out some of the most profitable NRFI spots and get deeper into the slate, handing out MLB NRFI predictions for Wednesday, September 4.

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for White Sox vs Orioles

The Orioles have hit a bit of a snag offensively, coming in under the league average in wRC+ over the last two weeks as they continue to struggle in limiting strikeouts.

• The top of the order has been hurting more than most other areas, with Gunnar Henderson batting a poor .176 over this span, Adley Rutschman hitting .205 with a .023 Isolated Power and Ryan O'Hearn reaching base just 26.8% of the time.

This should set up nicely for Jonathan Cannon -- a pitcher who isn't all that good but has been at his best in the first inning this year.

• Cannon's 3.94 ERA in the first inning isn't stellar, but it's worlds better than his numbers in innings two through six, and as a result he's owned a 13-3 NRFI record and has now cashed that bet in seven straight starts.

With issues abound atop the Orioles order, the White Sox rookie should be capable of taking care of his end of the bargain, and on the flip side we'll get to watch Albert Suarez go back to work and work on the 16-3 NRFI record he's compiled this year.

Chicago has been a friendly 77-63 to the NRFI this year and spun four scoreless frames the last time he faced the White Sox with just four baserunners against him.

With his opponent hitting just .220 in the last two weeks and failing to do much against him earlier this season, I think we're in the clear here.

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NRFI Prediction: White Sox vs Orioles NRFI (-108 at FanDuel)

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MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Nationals vs Marlins

The Nationals and Marlins produced a NRFI for us on Tuesday, and I'll go right back to both teams here on Wednesday with another left-hander on the hill for Washington.

• This time, it'll be MacKenzie Gore who we put our faith behind, a pitcher who is a stellar 22-5 to the NRFI this year with just two baserunners allowed in the first inning of his last three starts.

Gore will have a platoon advantage over the Marlins' No. 2 hitter in Jesus Sanchez while he also will hunt down a slumping Jake Burger behind him. Miami is slumping, and now has cashed the NRFI in six of its last 10, making Gore's side of things very manageable.

On the flip side, we discussed yesterday how CJ Abrams and James Wood have fallen into a slump in the last couple of weeks, and while Valente Bellozo has been a troubled pitcher to this point in his rookie season he's found success in the early part of games.

• Opponents are hitting just .214 against Bellozo in the first three innings of games, and the righty now stands at 6-2 to the NRFI with one or fewer reaching base in four of his last five first innings.

With the top of the order struggling on both sides of this matchup and both pitchers getting off to great starts, this should be an excellent price to attack.

NRFI Betting Prediction: Nationals vs Marlins NRFI (-110 at BetMGM)

MLB NRFI Betting Prediction for Red Sox vs Mets

We'll wrap things up with an interesting matchup in New York between two teams jockeying for position in their respective playoff races in the Red Sox and Mets.

The matchup here for Megill is a strong one in spite of his poor 5-5 NRFI record this year.

• The right-hander has been all about his strikeouts this season, pitching to a 26.3% punchout rate and sitting just outside the top third of the league in both whiff rate and chase rate.
• He'll draw a Red Sox team that has been one of the guiltiest strikeout teams in the league this year and has continued striking out in over a quarter of their plate appearances over the last two weeks.

Boston's gotten plenty of production from Jarren Duran out of the leadoff spot, but that's really where the positives end.

• Masataka Yoshida owns a poor 59 wRC+ in the last two weeks to open things up for Megill after Duran, and then he'll deal to Triston Casas, who has struck out in nearly 37% of his plate appearances during this span.
• After him there's Rafael Devers, striking out at a 26.8% clip with a .105 batting average in the last two weeks.

If he can take care of his end, the Mets should fall victim to Tanner Houck and his 23-4 NRFI record.

The Mets have struck out at a poor 27% clip in the last two weeks to just a 6.3% walk rate, and Houck is a man who's been able to rack up punchouts when he hasn't run into a team which remains patient at the dish.

New York certainly fits the bill there, and while Francisco Lindor has maintained his MVP pace there's a big strikeout victim atop this order in Mark Vientos behind Brandon Nimmo, who's hit just .233 over the last two weeks.

All of this should come together to produce us another scoreless first.

NRFI Prediction: Red Sox vs Mets NRFI (-115 at BetMGM)

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