Check out my Best MLB Picks for today

Welcome to the first week of the second half. There are an unusual amount of games on tap in the majors for a Monday, and with that it's time to take a very close look at the best value on the board for this one.

(Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

I'm fixated on one hitter who's been written off by most fans, but who has quietly picked things up of late and should be in an excellent matchup versus a young Brewers starter. Then, I'm going to attack a weak platoon split in Colorado to bet on a pitcher's duel before continuing to buy low on Blake Snell.

Let's get right into things and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Monday, July 22.

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MLB BEST BET FOR MILWAUKEE BREWERS VS CHICAGO CUBS

I want to do something a little different to lead off our best bets and focus on a player prop -- specifically a hitter.

Dansby Swanson deserves attention on Monday at home against Tobias Myers and the Brewers. The veteran shortstop has struggled mightily this year, hitting .210 which would mark the worst season of his career by a wide margin.

Yes, he's started off the second half of the season with one hit in nine at-bats, but zooming out over his last nine games the normally-consistent Swanson is hitting .290 with a couple of extra-base hits.

Swanson has brought his rolling xwOBA to the league average over his past 40 or so plate appearances and should be in a glorious spot here against Myers.

That's because the young Brewers righty is primarily a fastball pitcher, and Swanson has established himself as one of the best in the sport at hitting that pitch.

• Even in one of the worst years of his career, Swanson has still hit fastballs at an average of 94 mph off the bat and his .238 Expected Batting Average against four-seamers is a whopping 57 points above his actual .181 average.
• That's come along with a .477 xSLG and against Myers, who has out-performed his expected numbers on the fastball, he should be well-positioned to hit the ball to the gaps and provide a spark for a struggling Cubs offense.

I've watched a lot of Myers, and I think he's hanging on by a thread with his 3.13 ERA. He had some horrific starts to begin his rookie campaign and has been incredibly fortunate to face some bat offenses over the last few weeks.

One of those teams was Chicago in late June, and in that start Swanson recorded a double off of Myers. I like him to keep it up.

Best Bet: Dansby Swanson 2+ Total Bases (+145 at DraftKings)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BET FOR BOSTON RED SOX VS. COLORADO ROCKIES

We really learned the hard way on Sunday night that the Red Sox struggle mightily against left-handed pitchers. Their .706 OPS in the split is 61 points worse than that of their performance against righties and they're striking out almost 30% of the time against southpaws to just a 23.6% strikeout rate versus righties.

• Strikeouts have been what's killed this Red Sox team all season long, so seeing this -- and a 40-point delta in Isolated Power -- really puts a damper on Monday night's game in Colorado.

It's not as if Austin Gomber is a world-beater, but as one of the Rockies starters who has figured out how to pitch to ground balls, he's found success at Coors Field with a 3.54 ERA at home versus a 5.61 ERA on the road.

He's also recovered a bit from a poor month of June to trend back towards the excellent expected numbers we saw him post through the first two months of the year, and while he remains a tough arm to back for strikeouts he's at least trending up again after that tough stretch.

• I think Gomber's capable of keeping the stronger of the two offenses at bay, which leads me to believe this one should be low-scoring.

The Red Sox will counter with Tanner Houck, who's ranked in the 92nd percentile when it comes to ground balls and he draws a Rockies team here that has struggled for contact and been carried heavily by power in July.

Houck's xSLG is a solid .387 as he pitches to plenty of grounders, and with both men keeping the ball out of the air against flawed offenses I think this one has a solid chance of heading Under, at least in the early going.

Best Bet: First Five Innings Under 5.5 Runs (-120 at BetMGM)

Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our ballislifebets section.?

MLB BEST BET FOR SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS LOS ANGELES DODGERS

We don't yet know what the plan will be for the Dodgers here with their rotation in a state of flux. They're set to return Tyler Glasnow on Wednesday and Clayton Kershaw on Thursday, and with other arms working over the weekend they may be forced to turn to rookie River Ryan for this start.

Ryan carries with him plenty of promise after flashing some great stuff in the minors and pitching brilliantly after being acquired from the Padres last season.

He sat out most of the first half with an injury, but now it seems the Dodgers are ready to deploy him -- and they'll need him with how much their bullpen worked over the weekend.

• The thing is, I don't know how much length Ryan can give them -- and I'm equally as skeptical that he can have instant success in jumping to the big-league level against a Giants team that has proven it can hit for power this season.

San Francisco will have Blake Snell working here, and over the course of the last two seasons he's displayed a mastery of facing the Dodgers.

He struck out eight and allowed just one hit over six scoreless the last time he saw them 10 months ago and over is last five starts against L.A. has allowed just seven earned runs across 28 innings of work with 32 strikeouts.

Snell's seemed to settle in after a bizarre start to the season which was brought on by the lack of a spring training, and with his strikeouts climbing rapidly and his xBA dropping to .219, I think he should take this one into his own hands for the visitors.

Keep in mind, too, that up until last night the Dodgers had put up a surprising strikeout near 24% this month and have looked a bit lost at the plate. Their platoons against left-handers, too, are significantly worse and now they may be without Miguel Rojas at shortstop.

With an uncertain pitching outlook, made worse by a taxed bullpen, I think the Giants are the smart play on Monday.

Best Bet: Giants ML (+108 at FanDuel)