Sports Reporter | Capper
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Saturday looks like an excellent day to bet on baseball with games beginning in the afternoon and wearing on into the night, and we'll be taking a look at a fun nightcap in the big leagues for some best bets today.
I'm still backing Ranger Suarez despite a tough last outing against the Marlins, given he'll face a cold Braves team -- and with a surging starter on the opposite end of the matchup we may see a low-scoring affair. If that wasn't enough, I'll take a look at a second Under before heading out to the last game of the day for a NRFI prediction.
Let's get right into the slate and hand out our MLB Best Bets for Saturday, July 6.
MLB Betting Resources:
I'll admit, I was skeptical of Spencer Schwellenbach at first. The right-hander had an extremely short stay in the minor leagues prior to making his major-league debut to mixed results, so I anticipated a bit of a learning curve for the rookie.
That should put him in a good spot against the Phillies, who have an OPS 32 points lower against ground-ball arms than against fly-ball types.
They've also suffered some well-documented injuries to Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber which has put the top of the lineup in flux and while they've remained relatively afloat over the last week they've struck out in a stunning 27% of plate appearances.
The Braves have been cool at the plate, meanwhile, with a wRC+ of 93 in the past week and have to take on Ranger Suarez here, a pitcher who's historically pitched well in this series with a 3.23 ERA in 53 career innings versus Atlanta and some great showings in the postseason to boot.
The Under should very much be in play here, and I'd take it down to eight runs.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.
An Under at Coors Field? Well, it may not be that crazy on Saturday night.
In a shocking turn of events this season, Austin Gomber has not only been effective but has figured out how to pitch at home.
The Royals have been abysmal at the dish lately, ranking 21st in wRC+ over the last week and posting a weak .161 Isolated Power with a very low walk rate under 6%, signifying that they will swing at just about anything.
They're at a .158 ISO on the year and just .138 against left-handers, so even in Colorado I'm not convinced they will be leaving the yard much here.
On the opposite end, meanwhile, Seth Lugo has quite enjoyed Coors Field with a 3.21 ERA over 14 career innings here and last year spun seven stellar innings on the road against the Rockies with just two earned runs and seven strikeouts.
They do struggle against southpaws, however, and I think Gomber's figured out a thing or two. The Rockies are worth a shout on the moneyline, but this total is more than reasonable.
Best Bet: Under 10.5 Runs (-115 at BetMGM)
Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our ballislifebets section.?
We saw some fireworks on Friday night in San Diego as the Padres rallied back after a six-spot in the ninth inning to win 10-8, but it's worth noting that this was just a 7-2 game heading into the final frame. Arizona's offense went backwards after a blazing last week of play against a pretty mediocre arm in Randy Vasquez, who used his spacious home park to his advantage with plenty of flyouts, and now they'll see another fly-ball arm in Matt Waldron who owns some ever-improving numbers on contact.
Christian Walker may be looking like the second coming of Barry Bonds right now, but even he was held in check by a park this large on Friday.
With the conditions for power very unfriendly, Waldron should make it out of the bottom of the first unscathed, and I also have faith in Brandon Pfaadt to work a clean first against a Padres offense which had cooled a bit over the last couple of weeks prior to last night's showing.
It was the bottom of the order which did the damage against Arizona on Friday, as Jackson Merrill and David Peralta keep raking, while the top of the lineup remains in something of a funk. It took Jurickson Profar five plate appearances to record a hit and Jake Cronenworth was held to just one hit.
This is our best hope of a NRFI today on the late slate.
NRFI Prediction: Diamondbacks vs. Padres NRFI (-122 at FanDuel)
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