Best NRFI Bets Today

We're back with another week in baseball which promises to be filled with just as much drama as the last, and to kick things off we'll take a look at the NRFI -- No Runs in the First Inning.

(Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

Today's slate isn't ripe with great spots to play the NRFI, but we'll take a look at some potential landing spots anyway. There's at least one trendy pitching matchup we'll be able to target in Tampa Bay before moving on to discuss some rather undervalued pitchers elsewhere in the bigs.

Let's check out some of the most profitable NRFI picks and get deeper into the slate, handing out MLB NRFI predictions for Monday, August 12th.

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MLB NRFI Prediction for Astros vs Rays

The Astros and the Rays are down on their luck at the dish right now. While Houston still ranks 11th in wRC+ over the past two weeks, it's certainly fallen off the torrid pace it had set to open the month of August while the Rays are hitting just .237 and rank 16th in wRC+ during that time.

• This should set up well for two arms which certainly have their flaws, but have been excellent in helping us to the NRFI this year.
• While Framber Valdez has gone 17-3 to the NRFI this season, his counterpart Taj Bradley is 13-3 with a brilliant 2.81 ERA in the first.

The Rays are hitting just .242 against ground-ball pitchers and with their poor rate of converting contact into base hits should fail to get much done to begin this one against Valdez. On the flip side, while Yordan Alvarez has been red-hot, Jose Altuve has fallen off in the past 14 days and a power pitcher like Bradley who can keep the ball on the ground should match up well against all three.

NRFI Prediction: Astros vs Rays NRFI (-125 at FanDuel)

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MLB NRFI Prediction for Rangers vs Red Sox

We've reached the point in this story where I can talk about Tyler Mahle, who I'm very excited about.

The righty is poised to emerge as something of a savior for a Rangers pitching staff that's dealing with some tough injuries, carrying a couple years of success in the big leagues into his 2024 campaign which began last week after a long injury layoff.

• Mahle looked to be the same arm we all know and love in his season debut against Houston, throwing three scoreless innings until his defense let him down in the fourth, where he'd allow his lone run over five frames.
• The once-touted prospect seemed to be turning the corner in his career with a 3.75 ERA in 2021 and a 3.49 xERA in 2022 prior to his injury last year, posting great strikeout numbers and excellent expected numbers on contact.

We know the Red Sox strike out a whole lot and can be reliant upon power to score runs, so that should place Mahle in a friendly environment on Monday.

Then, there's Brayan Bello, who hasn't exactly been the easiest man to trust this season. What we've seen, however, is that he struggles the third time through the order and also will walk far too many batters -- two things that don't concern us all that much in this spot.

The Rangers love to swing, walking in fewer than 8% of plate appearances over the last two weeks, and to start things off Bello will see two struggling bats in Marcus Semien and Josh Smith -- the former is hitting .200 in the last 14 days while the latter is at .216.

I expect a scoreless first in Boston as both men find success in their respective matchups.

NRFI Prediction: Rangers vs Red Sox NRFI (-110 at DraftKings)

MLB NRFI Prediction for Rockies vs Diamondbacks

This is where things get tricky, because there aren't a ton of pitchers remaining I feel great about. Cal Quantrill certainly hasn't been one of my favorites over the years, but he should be well-equipped to deal with one of the best slugging teams in the league over the last couple of weeks.

• The veteran righty has introduced a splitter to his arsenal to pair with a sinker for success in pitching to ground balls this year. He's lowered his xBA from .291 a year ago to a more acceptable .268 as a result and will pitch in a very friendly park for contact-oriented pitchers on Monday.
• Arizona grades out as the third-worst park for home runs and is just 17th in overall park factor for the last three years, which should mean the damage done against Quantrill isn't all that extreme.

On top of that, it's really been the heart of the Diamondbacks order that has done the most damage. Yes, Ketel Marte remains one of the strongest hitters in the National League, but he's cooled off in the last week and Corbin Carroll continues to be somewhat disappointing when you zoom out over the last month.

I expect a man used to pitching to contact to fare well in a friendly park while his offense, ranked third-worst in wRC+ when playing on the road, to struggle against an ever-improving Brandon Pfaadt.

NRFI Prediction: Rockies vs Diamondbacks NRFI (-105 at DraftKings)

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