Check out my Best MLB Picks for today
Friday's always a fantastic night to bet on baseball as every team in the league returns to action, beginning some fun weekend sets around the league.
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I'm eyeing a trio of exciting series, with a potential pitcher's duel on the cards in Baltimore and a good spot for the Yankees, at long last, presenting itself in Toronto. I'll also be fading one of my least favorite pitchers on the road in St. Louis to cap things off.
Let's waste no more time and dive into our MLB Best Bets for Friday, June 28.
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MLB BEST BET FOR TEXAS RANGERS VS BALTIMORE ORIOLES
It's so far, so good for Texas Rangers starter Max Scherzer here in 2024.
The future Hall-of-Famer had a rocky rehab stint this month, but he debuted to excellent results against the Royals earlier in the week by spinning five innings of one-run ball with four punchouts and will now be out to build a little bit of form against the formidable Baltimore Orioles on Friday night.
Scherzer's hardly been a ground-ball pitcher throughout his career, but he continued to miss bats at a high rate last year and still seems for all the world to be a strong strikeout arm even in his Age-39 season.
This is of particular interest here against Baltimore, which has limited strikeouts quite well this year and has had the benefit of even fewer punchouts over the last couple of weeks.
- Scherzer continues to limit hard-hit contact and even in a rocky 2023 season still managed to post a strong .375 Expected Slugging and very low .207 Expected Batting Average.
That should make for a tougher matchup for the power-hungry Orioles, who should be putting fewer balls in play against the swing-and-miss righty and come up with fewer expected extra-base hits given his strong profile over the years.
I think Scherzer can help us sneak this game under a relatively high total, and on the other side of the coin I've got no concerns about Albert Suarez against the fourth-coolest offense in baseball by wRC+ over the last two weeks.
The righty's been very effective this year between a starting and relief role, and while he does pitch to a concerning number of fly balls, Texas enters this one hitting an abysmal .214 against fly-ball arms with a low .348 slugging percentage, numbers that are significantly worse than against ground-ballers.
Scherzer and Suarez both deserve more respect here, and the chances that Baltimore's strong offense blows the roof off this total are lower than normal.
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Best Bet: Under 8.5 Runs (-102 at
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MLB BEST BET FOR NEW YORK YANKEES VS TORONTO BLUE JAYS
It's been a very tough stretch for the New York Yankees, who are really feeling the loss of Giancarlo Stanton, but I think Friday is the night for them to get back to their winning ways.
They'll have the benefit of facing a lefty in Yusei Kikuchi whose stock is falling fast.
- He had a blistering start to the season with a 2.45 ERA in April, which began with 5 1/3 strong innings against New York, but he posted a 3.62 ERA in May before stumbling to a 6.04 ERA here in June.
- His hard-hit rate remains quite high at over 41% for a third straight month, and in June his xBA is way up to .300.
The lefty continues to allow the same types of dangerous contact, a lot of which has been on the ground, and his walks are trending in the wrong direction.
His barrel rate also continues to climb, nearly hitting 13% this month, and none of these elements are particularly encouraging considering the Yankees not only take walks at an extremely high clip but own nearly a .300 average against ground-ball pitchers and have one of the highest barrel rates and home run-to-fly ball ratios around.
I expect a strong showing from a sleeping Yankees offense, and on the other side of the coin I continue to believe in the ground-ball ways of Marcus Stroman, who will be pitching against his former team here in Toronto.
- The Blue Jays enjoyed a rare night of power against a fly-ball type in Carlos Rodon, but against ground-ballers they're hitting just .237 and slugging a measly .325 this season.
That should be music to Stroman's ears, considering he's pitched to contact quite well this year and has a solid defense behind him. He's also sporadically flashed some potential in the strikeout department over the course of the season, and the Blue Jays enter this one striking out in over a quarter of their plate appearances in the past week.
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Best Bet: Yankees ML (-105 at DraftKings)
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MLB BEST BET FOR CINCINNATI REDS VS ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
I'm still not seeing it with Frankie Montas. The right-hander entered his big-league career with all the potential in the world, and scouts talked for years about his sinker.
Well, it was so awful that the righty has almost totally abandoned it this year, opting to throw his fastball more -- and that pitch has been absolutely crushed once again this season, producing even worse results.
The Cardinals may be struggling against fastballs this year, but not only is this a low-quality delivery by the numbers, they've also found some sudden success in the last week in ranking 11th in run value against the pitch.
- Factor in that Montas has once again had issues with walks, another area that St. Louis has shown improvements, and has pitched a boisterous .259 xBA, and I think St. Louis can win the battle of hits here in a spacious Busch Stadium.
The pitcher for the home team, Andre Pallante, also deserves a little more credit for his season. His expected numbers would indicate he's due for a little positive regression, and as a starter over the last two years he's had much better results than when he's been relegated to the bullpen.
- He's coming off a rough outing versus the Giants, sure, but the Reds continue to be one of the weakest offenses in baseball and have produced just a .164 Isolated Power in the last two weeks with an awfully-low 5.3% walk rate.
That's of note against Pallante, who's been generous with free passes throughout his career, but in pitching to one of the highest ground-ball rates in baseball he should find himself in a good spot versus a Cincinnati team that's hit just .223 against these types with a very low .321 slugging percentage. I think the home side should be getting a little bit more love.
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NRFI Predictions: Cardinals ML (-124 at FanDuel)
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