Best NRFI Bets Today

Happy Deadline Day! With all the madness surrounding the most exciting day in the major leagues, it's only fitting that we break down the most exciting bet in baseball -- No Runs in the First Inning.

(Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

We'll head to Philadelphia where the struggling Phillies should cure what ills Gerrit Cole, producing a slow start to a pivotal game in the series on Tuesday. Then, we'll go for a surprisingly-effective first-inning arm working in Tampa Bay before heading out West to close things out in Arizona.

Let's get into the games and give out some MLB NRFI predictions for Tuesday, July 30.

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MLB NRFI Prediction for Yankees vs Phillies

I realize this is a hard one to see if you look at the season that Gerrit Cole has had so far.

The reigning Cy Young Award winner has stumbled out of the gates after missing most of the first half due to injury, posting a 5.40 ERA across seven starts.

• What Cole has still been able to do this season is strike batters out, at a 24.5% clip, and that's been of particular concern for the Phillies.
• Philadelphia has struck out at a 23.4% clip this month to rank 11th-worst in the game, maintaining that ranking over the course of the last two weeks.

Cole's ability to miss bats should only help him further against a Phillies team that is really struggling at the moment. In those past two weeks, they're hitting just .229 with a measly 91 wRC+ and the top of the order has been of particular concern with Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner striking out in more than 26% of their plate appearances.

• Schwarber's hitting .229, Turner's at .167 and Bryce Harper is at an abysmal .143.

Cole is 5-2 to the NRFI this year, while his counterpart Aaron Nola is a solid 17-4 in the frame. New York may look formidable at the plate right now, but Nola has begun to settle down with a 3.52 ERA in July and is coming off his best start in a month against a good offense in Minnesota.

I expect a slow start here.

NRFI Prediction: Yankees vs Phillies NRFI (+102 at FanDuel)

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MLB NRFI Prediction for Marlins vs Rays

This should be a game which many fans of the game are tuning in for as the talented Jeffrey Springs makes his first start since undergoing Tommy John a season ago.

• It's hard to understand just how good Springs was when healthy two seasons ago, finishing with a 2.46 ERA in 135 1/3 innings with a solid 26.2% strikeout rate, few walks and a spicy .231 Expected Batting Average.
• Springs was well on his way to another dominant campaign last season with a 0.56 ERA through three starts before the unfortunate injury.

Miami's been one of the worst offenses in baseball, and has been even worse against lefties with a 50-point drop in OPS and a poor .228 average in the split. On top of that, its strikeout rate continues to creep up into the top 10 of baseball.

Tampa Bay is undergoing some change right now, shipping off Isaac Paredes and Amed Rosario with more trades expected on Tuesday.

That should help Edward Cabrera, the owner of an 8-1 NRFI record this season, settle in and continue dominating early in games. His biggest issues have come the second and third times through the order, which won't matter to us in this spot.

NRFI Prediction: Marlins vs Rays NRFI (-150 at Caesars)

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MLB NRFI Prediction for Nationals vs Diamondbacks

Speaking of trades, the Nationals have now sent two of their three best hitters packing in Lane Thomas and Jesse Winker. These two were crucial at the top of the order, and have now been replaced by inexperienced bats in James Wood and Juan Tepez with the slumping Keibert Ruiz behind them.

That brings me to the first half of this NRFI prediction, where Ryne Nelson should shine.

• The Diamondbacks righty owns an exceptional 0.51 ERA in the first inning of games this season, over the course of a whopping 19 starts.
• Nelson has struggled in his second full season at the big0league level, but he's shown drastic improvements this month with a tidy 2.97 ERA in five outing across 30 1/3 innings.

I expect the Nationals' new-look top of the order to struggle, and on the opposite end of the spectrum this Diamondbacks offense -- which was held scoreless until the ninth last night -- can't be trusted either.

• For all the heat we give Patrick Corbin, the Nationals lefty does own a solid-enough 3.43 ERA in the first inning.

He will also be greeted by a fellow left-handed hitter in Corbin Carroll to lead off the game, a player who's already mired in a slump, and will see Randal Grichuk who is hitting just .200 over the last two weeks.

Ketel Marte can do some damage against Corbin, sure, but we'll take our chances here with the odds clearly in our favor.

NRFI Prediction: Nationals vs Diamondbacks NRFI (+100 at DraftKings)