The UFC headlines a stacked fight card in Abu Dhabi which will be live and free on ESPN +. There will be a bantamweight showdown between Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov which will be headlining this fight card with each fighter looking toward a potential title shot with a win this weekend.

On the main card is a fight between two mainstays in the UFC as Tony Ferguson moves up in weight to take on Michael Chiesa in a welterweight matchup that should have the fans on the edge of their seats.

This should be a fantastic matchup between these two competitors so let's take a look at this matchup and our Ferguson-Chiesa prediction and pick.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - DECEMBER 16: Tony Ferguson of the United States looks on in a lightweight fight against Paddy Pimblett of England during UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington event at T-Mobile Arena on December 16, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

UFC Abu Dhabi: Tony Ferguson Predictions August 3rd

Tony Ferguson (25-10) is on the worst losing streak of his career with 7 straight losses with his most recent defeat coming against Paddy Pimblet at UFC 296.

While Ferguson may be on his last legs he is still a tough fight for anyone regardless of his current state. Pimblett who just finished King Green in his last fight in the first round couldn't even finish Ferguson despite his losing streak making him a formidable opponent for Chiesa this weekend.

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Tony Ferguson is still as dangerous as they come and against an opponent like Chiesa, his grappling will be in full effect in this matchup.

• In Ferguson's 25 victories as a professional MMA fighter, she has racked up 9 submissions with numerous D'arce Chokes on his resume who has seemed to be Chiesa's biggest kryptonite.

Chiesa may be the fresher fighter and the younger fighter coming into this matchup but it's hard to count out "El Cucuy" who will always be there in the fight. In this matchup, Ferguson will need to push the pace and make Chiesa uncomfortable. From there, Chiesa will tend to shoot ill-advised takedowns and that is when Ferguson can capitalize.

He can then snatch the neck of Chiesa potentially getting his 10th submission of his career and his first win since 2019.

UFC Abu Dhabi: Michael Chiesa Predictions August 3rd

Michael Chiesa (16-7) is returning to the Octagon after being on the shelf for 13 months and is currently on a three-fight losing skid most recently getting submitted by Kevin Holland in the first round of his last fight.

Chiesa started his welterweight career with four straight victories but once he faced Vicente Luque at a chance to put his name into title contention that's when the free fall happened thereafter. However, Chiesa is still 4-3 at 170 lbs and is welcoming Tony Ferguson to the welterweight division who's last seven-straight.

Chiesa is at his best when he's using his size and strength to bully his opponents to the mat and dominate them from there.

• In Chiesa's 16 victories as a professional MMA fighter, he has amassed 10 wins by submission.

While Tony Ferguson is a 10th Planet BJJ black belt he is still susceptible to being submitted just like he's been in two out of his last three losses. Also, Chiesa may have had more success in his standup than he had in his previous fights due to Furguson's decline.

However, it is best suited for Chiesa to do what he does best: grapple heavily in this matchup and make Ferguson work early on. Ferguson hasn't competed at 170 lbs since his time on The Ultimate Fighter back in 2011 and that could spell trouble if he can't push a hard pace for 15 minutes.

If Chiesa can get his grappling going without leaving his neck out there for Ferguson to snatch up he can finally right the ship and get back into the win column this weekend.

UFC ABU DHABI: TONY FERGUSON vs MICHAEL CHIESA FANDUEL ODDS FOR AUGUST 3

MONEY LINE

• TONY FERGUSON: +450
• MICHAEL CHIESA: -720

PROPS

• TONY FERGUSON BY POINTS: +1000
• TONY FERGUSON BY SUBMISSION: +1200
• TONY FERGUSON BY KNOCKOUT/TKO: +1900
• MICHAEL CHIESA BY POINTS: +140
• MICHAEL CHIESA BY KNOCKOUT/TKO: +1100
• MICHAEL CHIESA BY SUBMISSION: +135

OVER/UNDER (ROUNDS TOTAL)

• OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-118)
• UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-108)

BEST UFC ABU DHABI ODDS FOR TONY FERGUSON vs MICHAEL CHIESA

• Tony Ferguson comes in as the underdog in this fight against Michael Chiesa. Bet Rivers Sportsbook has the best odds at (+475)
• Michael Chiesa is the massive favorite in his return to the Octagon. Bet365 Sportsbook comes in with the best betting odds at (-600)
• FanDuel has the best odds when it comes to the over/under on the total rounds, which is set at 2.5 Rounds (-118) for the over, and (-108) for the under

FINAL FERGUSON-CHIESA PICK & PREDICTION

This fight should be a good one between two welterweights who need a big victory come this weekend. Ultimately, while Chiesa should be the younger and fresher fighter coming into this fight, the betting line is way off and Ferguson is going to be up to the challenger so, don't be surprised if we see Ferguson pull a rabbit out of his hat and serve Chiesa with his fourth D'arce Choke submission defeat.

FINAL FERGUSON-CHIESA PICK & PREDICTION: TONY FERGUSON (+450)