Auburn vs Alabama Preview

The Alabama Crimson Tide has not been as dominant as they were for much of the season. Although there is controversy surrounding the team and Brandon Miller, it's clear that this team has not been disrupted. They've beaten South Carolina in overtime and beat Arkansas at home.
On Wednesday, they will face the Auburn Tigers who are similar to the Arkansas Razorbacks defense the Tide faced. The Tigers have been having a tough time lately, losing to Vanderbilt last week and being defeated by Kentucky on Saturday.
The last time they met, the Crimson Tide won in Auburn by eight. Were we able to achieve a similar result in Tuscaloosa last time?

According to KenPom, Auburn's 17th-ranked Adjusted Defense Efficiency is its best attribute. Auburn ranks eighth in FG% defense and holds opponents to a miserable 28.4% from deep, and 45.8% within the arc.
The Tigers also limit their opponents to a 34.1% three-point attempt clip. This will be a major factor in this game since Alabama is 11th in terms of 3-point attempt rates offensively, at 47.1%. Auburn's ability to limit the Tide from the perimeter is a huge boost for Auburn, which keeps this game within striking distance.
The Tigers are also 32nd in the nation in overall rebounding percentage per shot quality, while the Crimson Tide are 34th. This means that the Tigers will reduce the margins where Alabama has an advantage over its opponents.

Both these teams can also bring in offensive boards (33.22% for Alabama and 34% for Auburn). However, according to KenPom, Alabama is ranked 134th on the defensive glass, while Auburn is ranked 310th.
Fouling on defense is another area where each team has problems. Alabama is 228th in free throw attempts, while Auburn is 325th. Although this will likely give Alabama a slight advantage, it could be a problem between conference rivals because they often foul other teams.

Alabama's 38.6% free throw rate is higher than Auburn's 34.9%. This might seem to be an advantage for Alabama, but Auburn's strength in this area of the game negates the Crimson Tide's usual huge gap.
According to KenPom, Alabama is 18th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Auburn is 80th. The Crimson Tide average a 35% shooting percentage from deep and a 54.5% shooting percentage from within the arc. Auburn is able to defend both, so they will be helping their own cause.

Open threes will be a major obstacle to Auburn covering. Although the Tigers don't allow open threes, Shot Quality ranks them 151st for open threes. Alabama will be able to see outside from many of the open threes they allow.
The Crimson Tide does not have as many reliable 3-point shooters, aside from Mark Sears and Brandon Miller. Auburn is able to match up with wings and guards well, which could be a problem for the Crimson Tide.

Auburn vs Alabama Head-to-Head this season

Alabama won at Auburn earlier in the year by eight points. That game showed why I think this spread may be to wide. Alabama has bot played as well as they were at that point in the season.

Our Betting Pick for Today - Betting on the Game: Auburn +9.5

I expect Alabama to win this game, but a spread of 9.5 seems slightly big for this matchup. The Tigers will cover if they don’t allow Alabama to go off from three-point range. Defensively the Tigers matchup well against the Crimson Tide.

I am taking the under in this game as I think that the Tiger defense will cause issues for the Bama offense and on the other side the Tigers are not efficient on the offensive side of the court.

Auburn vs Alabama How to Watch ??

?? Date: Wednesday, March 01

?? Game Time: 7 pm EST

?? How to Watch: ESPN

?? @Alabama