UCLA vs Oregon State Preview

The UCLA Bruins have the potential to be a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

After dropping early games to Baylor and Arizona, the Bruins went on a fourteen-game winning streak. They currently sit atop the PAC 10 standings and have only lost two conference games, both on the road to Arizona and USC.

The Bruins are continuing their winning ways with the 23rd-ranked adjusted offense efficiency and third-ranked adjusted defense efficiency.

They will face a team at the bottom of the conference on Thursday night, the Oregon State Beavers. The Beavers current standing is 9-15 overall and 3-10 in the PAC 10 for the Beavers. According to KenPom, the Beavs rank 268th overall and 128th, respectively, in adjusted offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.

Will UCLA dominate the Beavers as most expect? Let’s take a closer look.

The only way the Beavers can keep UCLA in control is by slowing the pace. That will be easier said than done. Oregon State ranks 338th in adjusted tempo on the season, per KenPom. It ranks 324th on defense at 18.2 seconds per possession and 310th on offense at 18.8. The problem is that UCLA ranks 253rd in tempo, 204th in offensive possession length and 246th in that area on defense. The Bruins are already used to slowing down the pace, hence the number of post-ups they typically manufacture. Oregon State shoots at a solid clip of 33.9% from deep. However, it’s shooting around 46% on 2-pointers, so don’t expect it to score much on the interior.

The Beavers would have a chance to remedy that by shooting well from 3, but the Bruins rank 27th in the open 3 rates. That should essentially shut the Beavers down on offense.

UCLA is known for defense, and defense travels in Basketball no matter where the game is being played. They are fifth in turnover percentage, and they will have a lot of advantage against a Beaver offense that turns the ball over 21.2% of the time. The Bruins rank 15th in terms of transition points per possession (PPP), while the Beavers allow 1.31 PPP in this section (211th). UCLA typically likes to get the ball inside. Jaylen Clark, Jaime Jaquez, Amari Bailey and Adem Bona all shoot over 50% on 2s, which could lead to issues for the Beavers.

Oregon State allows 1.17 PPP at the rim, while the Bruins score 1.23 on average. In addition, the Bruins scored 0.94 PPP on post-ups, while the Beavers yielded 0.90.

This is a poor matchup for Oregon State on the interior, which plays into the hands of a UCLA team that ranks seventh in point distribution on 2-pointers at over 60%.

Head to Head

The Bruins have owned a recent advantage winning seven out of the last ten games played between these two teams. The last matchup between these two teams occurred last year, with the Bruins demolishing the Beavers 94-55 in Corvallis. The last Oregon State win over UCLA was an overtime win in the 2021 PAC 10 tournament. Historically the Bruins own a 36-12 advantage over Oregon State all-time.

Statistical Highlights

The Bruins are led by Jaime Jaquez Jr. (16.3 ppg) and Tyger Campbell (13.2 ppg, 4.9 apg) leading the charge. The Bruins have two other players averaging in double figures. Oregon State will be led by Jordan Pope?(12.6 ppg) and?Glenn Taylor Jr. (11.0 ppg); they don't have much to offer after these two players, as nobody averages double figures on the team.

Betting Pick

This game looks like a mismatch on paper; I feel it will look like that on the court as well. Oregon State just doesn't have enough firepower to win this game. The question then becomes do they have enough firepower to cover the 15-point spread. To cover this game, the Beavers would have to shoot the ball well against UCLA's defense and they would have to defend well and off what I have seen this season, that is not a high probability bet. I Like UCLA -15.

Bet the over in this game

The over/under in this game sits at 123.5; I like the over in this game. Oregon State's lack of offense worries me, but UCLA will score at least in the mid-70s in this game. If I am right and the Bruins score 75, I only need 49 points out of Oregon State to hit the over. I prefer just betting the over in this game because it's a safer bet than giving up 15 points.