Just as these are perilous times in America, grassroots basketball is at a perilous juncture in its current form. Judging from what we evaluated during the first July live period, independent operations (and operators) during live period events are at a critical crossroads in their very existence. It's very similar to other companies or entities offering products or services: The costs to operate keep getting higher as the quality of the product gets worse. We examine why this is happening.

1. The Scholastic Live Period Has Caused Major Change
After the NCAA corruption scandal of 2017-18, there was an attempt to make scholastic basketball a bigger part of the recruiting process by implementing two live weekends in June for high school teams. This started in 2019 and it's safe to say it has caused major change to July. After the June scholastic period, D1 colleges have a good read on their main high school recruiting targets. Since they are also targeting less high school players overall because of the NCAA Transfer Portal, July just has a different feel, especially among the independent events. With college coaches spread out at so many live events, much of the electricity and anticipation for a great game or a great evaluation setting has disappeared at independent events. College coaches don't seem to be going the extra mile to unearth a new revelation when they already know the talent levels are way down in comparison to pre-COVID levels. And armed with the knowledge they gained in June, they can follow and hone in on their main targets.

2. Players Are Wising Up
To be clear, events like Peach Jam (EYBL Finals) and adidas' 3SSB Palmetto Road Championships are still terrific July events with much of the same atmosphere we saw before the onset of the June live period. Those events, however, are geared towards elite, high major prospects. There are lower level elite prospects playing in the independent sector and the talent pool is getting worse every summer. A fallout of this is some D1 prospects are realizing they don't have to play endless July games if they feel their recruitment is where it needs to be and or they played well during spring and June. We know of at least three D1 prospects that simply chose not play with their travel team or a travel team in the first July period. The value of doing so is still there, but it's clearly not as strong as it once was. Parents sometimes still foster unrealistic expectations of their son going high major or even getting a scholarship, but the picture is getting more clear for them each passing summer. The messaging certainly is more powerful when they are paying more all-around to have their son play in front of such few college coaches.

3. Shoe Company Circuits Have The Fat
With Under Armour Association in Atlanta, Adidas 3SSB in Rock Hill, S.C., NXTPRO League in Mesa, Ariz. and Nike Peach Jam and Prelude 32 in Augusta, Ga., there is certainly less independent teams or independent grassroots coaches operating less travel teams under one umbrella. Many big businesses like to "cut the fat" so to speak, but shoe company-sponsored circuits are rounding up as many teams for their circuits as possible and with two more circuits emerging, July is definitely watered down. There is no meeting spot like Las Vegas was before the corruption scandal, there are few battles across shoe company lines and the teams are spread out. For independent programs to survive (and when we say survive we mean play in live period events in front of D1 college coaches) they are going to have to come together to some degree and be smarter on how they operate events. There simply isn't enough fat to feed everyone, especially with the rising costs of doing business (insurance, referees, scorer's tables, trainers, etc.).

4. Still Some Independent Diamonds In The Rough
Even with so many events in so many different places at once, the tireless recruiter has an even bigger advantage now. He or she will go the extra mile to uncover a sleeper. And trust me when I say there are still some quality D1 prospects on independent clubs, such as 6-foot-5 2025 shooting guard Anthony Moore of Develop 17U/(Lincoln HS, Stockton, Calif.), among others. The drawback is having to spend more precious time traveling to gyms to find prospects such as Moore and not having more of them under one roof. Smart college coaches simply can't afford to sit through multiple games without viewing a prospect close to their level. They simply won't come back, will move on to other targets or simply sit it out. Going forward, there will need to be more incentive not to play on an established shoe company team and there is no guarantee all five circuits will be around in 2025.

5. Senior Season Greatly Matters Again
The 1982-83 season marked the beginning of the basketball early signing period in November. If prospects knew where they wanted to attend college and said institution was comfortable with offering a scholarship, a player could sign and play his senior season without the pressure of trying to earn a scholarship. Prior to that season, senior season performance was still relatively important, but the early signing period put a premium on junior year and underclass performance and it became no secret many of the prestigious high school honors (such as McDonald's All-American selection) had little to do with senior season performance. Over 40 years later, however, the importance of the senior season is making a comeback for a vast majority of potential D1 prospects. Colleges are using less of their scholarship allotment on high school seniors, and they often wait until the spring as roster turnover is a season-to-season reality. Seniors can play their way into a scholarship, because colleges are waiting a bit longer to offer high school prospects and because they have to wait to see which returning players will jump into the NCAA Transfer Portal in March. On the flip side, a legitimate scholarship offer in the summer and fall shouldn't be taken lightly. This hope to get "something bigger" is a risk for a high school senior because that offer (or roster spot) may not be available in the spring.

Ronnie Flores is the national Grassroots editor of www.ebooksnet.com. He can be reached at?[email protected]. Don't forget to follow him on Twitter:?@RonMFlores

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