The post Game of the Day: VCU V. Saint Mary's: Betting Odds: NCAA Tournament Round of 64 appeared first on www.ebooksnet.com.
]]>*All lines are taken from Draft Kings*
VCU: +160
Saint Mary’s: -190
Over: -120
Under: +100
VCU: +4 (-105)
Saint Mary’s: -4 (-115)
The VCU Rams are coming off an excellent season, accomplishing 52 wins in the last two seasons. The Rams come into the NCAA basketball tournament winning 9 straight games. VCU had key wins over Pittsburg, Dayton, George Mason, and Vanderbilt. In fact, they are the ONLY team to represent the Atlantic-10 this year. They averaged a +14-point differential during the A 10 Championship against Davidson, Saint Louis, and Dayton. The Rams endured a key loss to Memphis, currently the 8th seed, 62-47. VCU may have 27 wins this season, however, they have yet to play a top 25 team in the nation. Led by Guard Adrian “Ace” Baldwin Jr., the Rams had the 59th hardest schedule this season. The last time the Rams made the Final Four was the 2011 season as an 11th seed, partially due to their stellar defense. They rank 24th in the nation, allowing just over 62 points-per game, and held opponents to a 32 percentage three-point percentage. They have an incredible defense this year and rank top 20th in forced turnovers. The Rams rank near the bottom in scoring, and often rely on turnovers and defense to win games. VCU may have won the A 10 Championship. However, they have a tough matchup against the Gaels, who are also a defensive minded team.
Saint Mary’s had an impressive season, finishing 26-7 overall, and 14-2 in the WCC. Saint Mary's had key wins over Oral Roberts, Vermont, SDSU, Vanderbilt, and an OT thriller against Gonzaga. They are 2-3 against top 25 teams this year, and took key loses against Houston, and Gonzaga. They started the season with 6 straight wins and ended the season winning 17 of their last 20. In addition, they had the 12th hardest schedule this year. The Gaels are top 5 in the nation in opponent points per game, partially due to guard Logan Johnson averaging over 1 steal a game. He is a player with grit, has scoring capability, and can often grab boards. On the plus side, the Gaels split the WCC title with Gonzaga, who ranks top 5 in offense. Saint Mary’s has not been hot, dropping two games to Gonzaga. The Gaels will heavily rely on Johnson and the 3-point shot, where they rank 35th. Much like VCU, they are not strong at the free throw line, ranking in the bottom 270th. This game will come down to defense and forced turnovers.
Jarren McAllister (Guard)
Matt Van Komen (Center)
Mason Forbes (Forward)
Junior guard Adrian Baldwin Jr. is a decent scoring option for the Rams. However, he is inconsistent from the 3-point range. Baldwin Jr. averages over 2 steals a game, provides playmaking ability, and dishes out 5.9 assists a game. In the Conference Championship game against Dayton, he scored 16 points on 33 % 3-point shooting. He showcased his playmaking abilities with 7 assists. His best game of the season came against St. Louis with 37 points, on 80 % from the 3-point, and 12-15 from the field. Look for him to be heavily involved in this game.
VCU does not have an elite star, rather a mix of players who can all score in double-digits. Forward Brandon Johns Jr is another guard who can provide scoring, and often rebounds.
Senior Guard Logan Johnson is a beloved player for Saint Mary's. He started his career with Cincinnati and played for the Gaels the past four seasons. Logan is not a player who knocks down three-point shots consistently. He averaged 30 % beyond the arc this season. However, Logan plays incredible defense, and averages 1.5 steals a game. He is built with tenacity, and the Gaels will heavily rely on him against a top VCU defense. Johnson was red hot at the end of the season, scoring 27, 29, and 27 points. During the last three games of the season, he averaged 58 % from the 3-point, and 61.7 field goal percentage over those games.
Freshman Guard Aidan Mahaney will be a key factor in this game. He averaged a solid 14.5 points per game,and can drive to the basket while on ball. In addition, he averaged 41.2 % from the 3-point line this season.
Junior Center Mitchel Saxen will provide defense in the paint and is an effective scoring option. Saxen averages 7.8 boards a game and 1.1 blocks. The Gaels have a slight advantage in the rebounding department over VCU. Look for Saxen and Forward Kyle Bowen to take care of the boards down below.
? VCU AND Saint Mary’s are averaging 71.4 points per game, tied at 200th and 201st.
? VCU ranks 34th in points allowed with 62.9 opponents points per game.
? VCU ranks 322nd in rebounds per game with 33.3.
? VCU ranks 35th in point differential at +8.5.
? VCU ranks 36th in blocked shots with 4.6 per game.
? Saint Mary’s ranks 5th in points allowed with 60.1 opponents points per game.
? Saint Mary’s ranks 171st in rebounds per game with 35.6
? Saint Mary’s ranks 17th in point differential at +11.2
? VCU Averages 34.7% from the 3-point, while Saint Mary’s averages 37.2 % beyond the arc.
-VCU covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.
-VCU has a 18-15-1 record ATS this season.
-Saint Mary’s covered the spread in JUST FOUR of their last 10.
-Saint Mary’s has a 19-13-0 record ATS this season.
-VCU has won 9 straight. In their last three games, the largest spread covered was -7.5. Neither of these teams are offensive machines. I fully expect a close game with defense on BOTH sides.
-VCU won the Money Line 9 out of their last 10 games
-Saint Mary’s won the Money Line in 7 of their last 10 games.
-Saint Mary’s averages the exact points per game as VCU. They have more experience against top 25 teams this season and slight edge in rebounding and on offense. Give me the Gaels.
-VCU Avg +/- vs O/U Line: -0.82
-Saint Mary’s Avg +/- vs O/U Line: -1.06
-VCU Overall O/U Record: 14-20-0
-Saint Mary’s overall O/U Record: 16-16-0
-VCU hit the UNDER in 6 of their last 10 games.
-Saint Mary’s hit the OVER in 6 of their last 10 games.
122 is low for an Over/Under. Although both of these teams play incredible defense, I expect both teams to score at LEAST 60 plus points. I picked the over. However, not by much.
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]]>Finally, an ending for VCU that wasn’t miraculous.
After dramatic endings in road victories over St. Bonaventure and George Washington, the Rams got 27 points from JeQuan Lewis, shut down Davidson’s Peyton Aldridge, engaged their inside game after halftime and pulled away for a 74-60 victory at the Siegel Center on Saturday.
VCU (20-5, 10-2) won its sixth consecutive game, maintained pace with Dayton atop the Atlantic 10 and reached 20 wins for the 11th consecutive season.
The Rams weren’t able to close out late leads in the past two games, necessitating heroics. A 16-5 run in the second half gave them separation, and this time they floored it.
“We’ve been playing with fire, and usually when people play with fire, they end up getting burned,” Lewis said. “We wanted to do everything we could to stay out of it.”
Aggressive defense on Davidson’s Jack Gibbs and Aldridge helped. They’re the second-highest scoring teammates in the country, averaging 20.9 points and 21.1, respectively.
In Davidson’s 69-63 victory at Davidson on Jan. 14, Gibbs went off for 30 and Aldridge had 24 points and 12 rebounds. Gibbs had 27 points on Saturday but had to work for them, connecting on 10 of 24 shots.
VCU had problems in the first game matching up with Aldridge, a 6-foot-8 forward who can score inside, shoot 3-pointers and facilitate. This time, they used 6-7 Justin Tillman, 6-7 Mo Alie-Cox and 6-5 Jordan Burgess to guard him.
Alie-Cox, who normally lurks around the post area as a shot-blocker, sometimes came out to the perimeter to shadow Aldridge. He was 2 of 13 and scored 6 points.
“I knew if I could be physical with him … “ Alie-Cox said. “When he did get it in the post, he always wants to come back to his right hand, and I took it away. I took pride in my defense. He’s their leading scorer. I just tried to take him out of the game as much as possible.”
The Wildcats, after an opening salvo of 3-pointers, scored 26 points in the 12:08 of the game. They scored 34 in the last 27:52.
“You saw how Peyton was frustrated,” Davidson coach Bob McKillop said. “2 for 13, very uncharacteristic for him, and some of those shots weren’t even close.”
Lewis has been somewhat quiet of late. In a matchup with Gibbs, he was aggressive early and was 8 of 13, bombing in four 3-pointers.
“I just wanted to be more aggressive,” Lewis said. “We lost to them last time, so I kind of had a personal grudge.”
Gibbs is “a great player,” Lewis said. “I love going against good guards. It just makes me play harder.”
VCU has been prone to giving up big numbers to a player or two this season. Gibbs, Richmond’s ShawnDre’ Jones and St. Bonaventure’s Matt Mobley all have torched the Rams for at least 30 points.
Wade said his players “all wanted JeQuan to get 30 because I’ve been just going nuts about all these guys scoring 30 on us.”
“I told them this week the reason none of y’all have gone for 30 is because you haven’t played against our defense,” Wade said. “They were all laughing. They wanted me to keep JeQuan in.”
Davidson (12-11, 5-7) had an antidote for VCU’s big men in the first game, clogging the lane and limiting the production of Rams big men Alie-Cox, Tillman and Ahmed Hamdy.
That worked in the first half (combined 9 points) before the trio got untracked and scored 20 points in the second.
“The first game, I did a poor job,” Wade said. “We had a poor plan. We kept trying to score in the post on (Will) Magarity and Andrew (McAuliffe). You’ve got to make Aldridge guard down there, too.
“We threw the ball into Tillman a little bit more than we typically do in the post. We tried to make (Aldridge) have to exert some energy defensively to guard us, which hopeful led to some of his poor shooting on offense. We kind of let them off the hook in the first game. We didn’t really go at him down in the post.”
Tillman, who has scored in double figures in 11 consecutive games, finished with 13 points and 16 rebounds, his third consecutive double-double.
“The first half I wasn’t finishing,” Tillman said. “The second half I just knew I had to pick it up, so I was a little more aggressive.”
Alie-Cox scored 10 points, and Hamdy added 6.
“You’re talking about three pretty darn good front-court players,” McKillop said. “We were maybe a little bit cautious foul trouble-wise, which they had done a great job of attacking us. They won the battle.”
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